← thoughts

most saas will die

the saas model was built on a simple arbitrage, custom software was too expensive to build and maintain, so renting someone else's was always the rational choice. that arbitrage is collapsing. when the marginal cost of producing software falls below the marginal cost of renting it, there is no longer a rational choice. there's just the obvious one.

and this only accelerates. scaling laws aren't slowing down; we're still on the curve. more compute, better architectures, longer context, stronger reasoning. every capability gain compounds into a direct reduction in the cost of producing software.